or Has the last fool yet to be born?

There is a saying in Denmark – “The last fool has not yet been born”, meaning there will always be someone who will try something, like blue water cruising.

Vinni and I have been sailing around through diverse areas of the world for the past 8 years or so and met many cruiser from many different countries.  Some, we have met several times and are lucky enough to call our friends.  Some, unfortunately, we only met once and then we sailed in different directions.

A question we have discussed with them often and one that we have been asked many times is; How many of you (blue water cruisers) are there really?

A damned good question and one that we haven’t had the faintest idea of how to answer.  First, you need to define “blue water cruiser”.  After that, you can begin to ponder.

There are many definitions of “blue water cruiser” but let’s start with the Danish Ocean Cruiser Association’s.  A “blue water cruiser” is one who has sailed at least 1000 nautical miles without sighting land.  Many other cruising associations use the same or similar definitions, so we can start with that one (even though many will disagree).  The Danish Ocean Cruisers Association has about 7000 members.  Some are working towards going cruising, some are cruising (Vinni and me) and some have been out there and remain members because they like to amongst people who has the same goals or experiences.

The numbers above are reflected in almost all other cruising associations.

Ok, so how many of us (some say idiots) are out there?

The answer is not given but there are some numbers we can use to extrapolate from and arrive at an (im)perfect guesstimate.

Let’s start with Europe.  Many Europeans sail off on what we call the “little Atlantic loop”, meaning starting in the Canaries, crossing the Atlantic, sailing around in the Caribbean then back across the Atlantic to Europe.  Usually this takes a year, although some spend an extra season in the Caribbean making it two or even more years.  Virtually all the boats doing this leave from Las Palmas harbor.  There are a few that leave from other islands and certainly a few that don’t stop at the Canaries, but these are few and far between.  We can discount them.

In 2022 there were exactly 1256 boats that checked out from Las Palmas, leaving for a foreign harbor.  Approximately 75% (940 boats) were going west.  So, just about 1000 boats heading for the New World.  How many stayed there?  How many sailed onwards?

We also have that number since virtually the boats coming from the New World come through Horta in the Azores.  In 2022, 1102 boats checked in there from foreign ports.  So the numbers seem to fit well.  We do have to remember that some of the boats arriving in Horta are American/Canadian boats coming to Europe to sail in the Med etc.

So there are something like 1000 European boats sailing around in the Caribbean in any given season, on top of that are American/Canadian boats that also sail down for Caribbean sailing.

So far, so good.  How many of those have the courage or ambition to continue out into the Pacific?  The Panama Canal keeps exact count as do the Chileans (Cape Horn) and the Canadians (Northwest Passage)

In 2022, 6 boats made the Northwest Passage, 3 in each direction.  77 boats rounded Cape Horn, 57 west to east, 20 east to west. 806 boats transited the Canal, 602 east to west and 204 west to east.

We do know that about 1/3 of the boats transiting east to west were American/Canadian boats that turned northwards after exiting the canal, leaving 400 or so heading either west over the Pacific or south to go round the horn.

In 2022, 404 boats checked into French Polynesia.  Some of these would be American/Canadian boats that came down the west coast then turned to starboard and made their way across.  The rest came through the canal.

All well and good, but how many made the “little Pacific Loop”?  Vinni and I did.  According to Customs and Border Protection in Hawaii, 20 foreign boats checked into the US there in 2022.  Some of those were Canadian, on their way home from sailing in Polynesia.  20 boats is not many and Vinni and I can attest to the low number.  We have met damned few that have done it.

57 boats rounded Cape Horn west to east.  What happened to the rest?  Some ended up being sold on New Zealand or Australia.  Others on Fiji or Tahiti.  Some finish their circumnavigation by having the boat shipped or going around Cape Hope – unfortunately, we don’t have exact numbers for this.

But the above doesn’t answer the question, “How many cruisers stay on the water for many years?”  Vinni and I are nowhere near the ones that have been out here the longest – 8 years is just beginning compared to some we have met.  Rolf and Danielle – 22 years.  Lynn and David – 14 years. Jim and Ann – probably hold the record – 41 years. They are on their 3^rd boat and now only sail coastal, but then Jim is 82 years old.  Based on the above and our own experience, a guesstimate is perhaps a couple of hundred boats are sailing around out here as multiyear cruisers?  Maybe a couple of hundred is high, the true number is probably less.

So, back to the question; Has the last fool been born yet?

Well, if you like living in a closet that shakes, yaws and rolls and enjoy spending your time as a contortionist to get into places to repair a myriad of things and a life where everything and I mean everything is completely dependent on wind and weather – then the last fool has yet to be born.  I am sure there will be others that will follow us and find this lifestyle wonderful (Vinni and I love it).

Onward to a couple of final numbers.  Our boat, Capri is 40 feet long.  When we left Denmark, a 40-foot boat was one of the bigger ones.  As we sailed further and further from Denmark, we noticed the boats got bigger and bigger.  In 2022, the average length of boat leaving Las Palmas was 42.5 feet.  The average length of boat transiting the Panama Canal was 49.6 feet.

So we are amongst the smallest.  By the way, 17% of the Panama Canal boats were catamarans.

Apparently, we aren’t that many out here.  While Vinni and I feel that there seem to more cruisers about, the numbers actually show a decline since 2010.  The Baby Boom generation has almost passed by.  I’m from 1952, the beginning of the baby boom generation and Vinni is from 1959, the end of the baby boom generation.  Anyone from this generation that isn’t already out here, probably won’t be coming.  The following generation is smaller.  Perhaps the advent of Starlink will encourage more to sail far – the jury is still out on that. Or perhaps there will just be less and less floating vagabonds and therefore more room in the anchorages.